Don't look at the monthly data, look at the weekly data.
As I sat in front of my computer pulling the numbers for January I became discouraged as the numbers for January don't reflect what is happening just one week into February. I still updated the January numbers and they are available for download through the links below but I want to focus on the weekly numbers as they tell the story of what is happening right now.
We have entered into a Compression Cycle where we have more buyers in the market than homes to sell them. This creates a shift between the relationship of supply and demand where multiple offers are now being brought out. This last week active inventory for sale in the 7 Metro Counties slipped below 4,000 units for sale and pending transactions jumped by 11.1% with 1,025 units going under contract. This pushed our Predictive Months Supply of Inventory down to 0.9 months. When this number drops below 1.0 months it means that multiple offers are likely. This week we also reported that for pending transactions between February 1st -7th, 2023 that Median Days on Market dropped to 16. If a home is priced right, shows well and is correctly positioned in the market they are going under contract in just over 2 weeks- vs. looking at the closed numbers for January 2023 showing Median Days on Market at 28. The monthly numbers are no longer sufficient to show the current trend we face in today's market.
Some spots are hotter than others. Overall, in January we marked at 1.98 Months of Inventory. Areas shown in red will feel more competitive and aggressive than areas in green and blue. Notice how the inner land locked suburbs just inside C-470 are bright red indicating a high level of demand and very short supply creating many multiple offer situations. Cooler areas are noted in green and blue. Some of the more green and blue areas include just south of DIA in Aurora, Lodo, Brighton, Sterling Ranch and Elbert County. These cooler areas have something in common, new construction supply. This new construction supply is increasing inventory forcing existing homes at a similar price point to stay on the market longer as builders offer incentives to purchasing a new home. You will find that you have more negotiating power in these areas with the ability to get concessions and negotiate down the price.
The Attached and Detached Residential Reports have been updated through January and the weekly report is current through February 7th, again I encourage you to look at the weekly numbers over the monthly numbers to set appropriate expectations right now in Metro Denver.
Expect things to slow down ever so slightly this weekend with Super Bowl, but the market at average price points will roar back to life over President's Day Weekend.
