Happy Holidays and Happy Listings

Happy Holidays and Happy Listings

  • Victoria Merchant
  • 12/8/22

This week was one of those that went by incredibly fast (17 days till Christmas, folks!), and lots of stuff happened, but I honestly can’t remember any of it.

I do know it was Bridger’s birthday, which is good. We had a sleepover last Friday for him, and I thought he shouldn’t have all the fun, so I invited a couple of my friends over, too. It was really nice. And the best part is he’s at an age where he just wants to hang with his buddies, so no more of that Jumpstreet crap for him. I’ll take that all day long. One down, one to go. 

I’m Florida bound this weekend! Helllloooo, sunshine! I’m debating whether to turn the rental into a medium-term rental for traveling nurses. It’d be way less hands-on and way less time-consuming. The nurse would rent a room for a term, so I could have three in at a time. I need to look into it more; not sure there’s a market for it in our area, but I think it’ll be worth the research. 

My Real Estate Status

I started working with a referral from a past client (her daughter, actually), and we went out and got a house. Yep, it was that smooth. We’re figuring out some inspection things, but I don’t foresee any issues. 

I also looked at a house over the weekend in Evergreen for clients who live out of state. We ended up putting an offer in, but we didn’t get it because they’re not in town, their current house isn’t listed yet, and buying a house unseen (in person) is always a difficult sell. It’s risky because if their offer is accepted and they come into town, hate it, and pull out, it’s not the best. 

Everyone understood the situation and took it well, though. I ended up looking at a couple other homes for them, and one is very promising, so all good!

Why You Don't Want to Sell Your House on Your Own

Current Denver Area Real Estate Market

"Sellers have really hung in there this year through market shifts, twists and turns. We've noted higher inventory this year than in 2021 and have been waiting for a purge of expired and withdrawn transactions. This purge is critical to drive our early market in 2023 where supply falls and demand picks up. Our purge finally showed up at the end of November where we saw an increase of withdrawn and expired listings plus fewer new listings hitting our market ending out last week with 6,030 listings available for sale in the 7 metro counties. Historically inventory drops again at the end of December as we get closer to the holidays. While I don't think we are going to have the rapid fire start to 2023 as we have seen in the last 3 years things are likely to pick up when interest rates drop possibly creating a tighter seller's market later in the year. We rounded out this week with approximately 2.1 months of inventory, 42.8% odds of selling, and nearly 60% of pending transactions last week making an average price reduction of -7.2%. Multiple offers and units under contract in 7 days or less cooled significantly with only 23.1% of homes closing in November selling for over asking price and 26.2% selling in the first week listed. Buyers have a great opportunity to take advantage of a market where their negotiating power is at its best levels in the last few years.

The market is still hot in some areas, and cooler in others. Here is a heat map of months of inventory by zip code in Metro Denver. Areas in red have a lower supply of inventory and areas in blue or green have a higher supply of inventory. hotter zones continue to be to the west of I-25 most notably Wheat Ridge, Lakewood and Littleton are still hovering 1-1.5 months of inventory. Cooling trends are noted in LoDo, south of DIA and into Parker and Castle Rock. Real estate is hyper local, be sure to check out your zip code in the Zip Code Index at the back of the attached single family and detached single family reports."

Key Advantages of Buying a Home Today

There’s no doubt buying a home today is different than it was over the past couple of years, and the shift in the market has led to advantages for buyers today. Right now, specific reasons make this housing market attractive for those who’ve thought about buying but have sidelined their search due to rising mortgage rates.

Buying a home in any market is a personal decision, and the best way to make that decision is to educate yourself on the facts, not following sensationalized headlines in the news today.  The reality is that headlines do more to terrify people thinking about buying a home than they do to clarify what’s actually going on with real estate.

Here are three reasons potential homebuyers should consider buying a home today.

1. More Homes Are for Sale Right Now

According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this year, the supply of homes for sale has grown significantly compared to where we started the year (see graph below):

This growth has happened for two reasons: homeowners listing their homes for sale and homes staying on the market a bit longer as buyer demand has moderated in response to higher mortgage rates.

The good news for you is that more inventory means more homes to choose from. And when there are more homes on the market, you could also see less competition from other buyers because the peak frenzy of competing over the same home has eased too.

2. Home Prices Are Not Projected to Crash

Experts don’t believe home prices will crash as they did in 2008. Instead, home prices will moderate at various levels depending on the local market and the factors, like supply and demand, at play in that area. That’s why some experts are calling for slight appreciation, and others are calling for slight depreciation (see graph below):

If you consider the big picture and average the expert forecasts for 2023 together, the expectation is for relatively flat or neutral price appreciation next year. So, if you’re worried about buying a home because you’re afraid home prices will crash as they did in 2008, rest assured that’s not what expert projections tell us.

3. Mortgage Rates Have Risen, but They Will Come Down

While mortgage rates have risen dramatically this year, the rapid increases we’ve seen have moderated in recent weeks as early signs hint that inflation may be easing slightly. Where they’ll go from here largely depends on what happens next with inflation. If inflation does truly begin to cool, mortgage rates may come down as a result.

When that happens, expect more buyers to jump back into the market. For you, that means you’ll once again face more competition. Buying your house now before more buyers reenter the market could help you get one step ahead. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, says:

“The upcoming months should see a return of buyers, as mortgage rates appear to have already peaked and have been coming down since mid-November.”

When mortgage rates come down, those waiting on the sidelines will jump back in. Your advantage is getting in before they do.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you should seriously consider the advantages today’s market offers. Let’s connect so you can make the dream of homeownership a reality. 

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